Tijuana 4-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 Jul 2024

Tijuana
4-2 HT 1-0
Guadalajara
📅13/07/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Tijuana vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.8
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.16
6+ Goals
8%
20.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 32% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+2.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tijuana v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +13%
1.67/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.30
+11% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 80%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
21.1 Crosses 14.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Tijuana vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.81 xG 1.28
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
262 Passes 349
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.01.2024 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
23.08.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
16.02.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
08.09.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 1-2 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
20.04.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 1-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
21.10.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Tijuana 4-2 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
4-2
AWAY Guadalajara
2.30 xG 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 1
276 Passes 298
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 22
7 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana got the better of Guadalajara 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tijuana as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tijuana had 47% of the ball to Guadalajara's 53%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 2.30 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tijuana and 1.33 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Guadalajara?

Tijuana 4-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 13/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 41%, draw 27%, Guadalajara 32%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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