Envigado 0-1 Fortaleza CEIF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 13 Jul 2025

📅13/07/2025 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.4pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.2pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.8pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Envigado EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF EU Bookmakers 37%
+10% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.24/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.39
+24% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +150%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
234 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
14.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
12.4 Crosses 21.1
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Envigado
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.57 xG 0.72
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
228 Passes 393
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.01.2025 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 0-0 HT 0-0 Envigado Envigado KOL
03.08.2024 Envigado Envigado 0-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF KOL
05.02.2024 Fortaleza CEIF Fortaleza CEIF 1-1 HT 1-1 Envigado Envigado KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Envigado
0-1
AWAY Fortaleza CEIF
0.50 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 0
199 Passes 238
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
11 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Envigado vs Fortaleza CEIF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza CEIF squeezed past Envigado 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Fortaleza CEIF found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Envigado had 46% of the ball to Fortaleza CEIF's 54%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 0.50 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Fortaleza CEIF led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Envigado and 0.67 for Fortaleza CEIF.

What was the final score of Envigado vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Envigado 0-1 Fortaleza CEIF in the Colombia - Primera on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Envigado vs Fortaleza CEIF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Envigado win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Envigado 37%, draw 30%, Fortaleza CEIF 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Envigado) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Envigado) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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