Independiente Medellin 1-1 Alianza Petrolera — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 13 Jul 2025

📅13/07/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.44
No
59%
1.49
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-10.8pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.7pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+8.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
37%
+4.1pp
59%
BTTS No
63%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 15%
+4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
1.34/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.44
-10% / +40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -5%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
356 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 76%
19.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.6
17.9 Crosses 12.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.25 xG 0.79
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
271 Passes 253
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
19 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2025 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
11.10.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-0 HT 1-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
25.02.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 2-0 HT 2-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
21.08.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
27.02.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 0-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.10.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-1 HT 2-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-1
AWAY Alianza Petrolera
0.96 xG 0.74
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
15 Corners 3
462 Passes 194
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
29 Box Touches 9
36 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin and Alianza Petrolera couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Independiente Medellin carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 67% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 33%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 0.96 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.83 for Alianza Petrolera.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera?

Independiente Medellin 1-1 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 55%, draw 25%, Alianza Petrolera 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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