Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Independiente Medellin v Alianza Petrolera — Team-Based Signals
Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Alianza Petrolera
KOL
0-1
HT 0-1
Independiente Medellin
KOL
3-1
HT 2-1
Alianza Petrolera
KOL
Independiente Medellin 1-1 Alianza Petrolera — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente Medellin and Alianza Petrolera couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.
This one beat our numbers. Independiente Medellin carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.
On the day, Independiente Medellin had 67% of the ball to Alianza Petrolera's 33%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 0.96 to 0.74.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.83 for Alianza Petrolera.
What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera?
Independiente Medellin 1-1 Alianza Petrolera in the Colombia - Primera on 13/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Alianza Petrolera?
Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 55%, draw 25%, Alianza Petrolera 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Medellin), BTTS No went the other way.