Gainsborough Trinity 3-1 Morpeth Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 13 Aug 2024

📅13/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.5
No
54%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-5.8pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.7pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+2.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
62%
-16.5pp
54%
BTTS No
38%
+16.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gainsborough Trinity EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Morpeth Town EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +0%
1.73/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.71
+0% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
352 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gainsborough Trinity
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Morpeth Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 6
13.01.2024 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 0-2 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
09.09.2023 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity İNGNLP
14.01.2023 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity İNGNLP
25.10.2022 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 1-1 HT 0-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
04.12.2021 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity İNGNLP
07.09.2021 Gainsborough Trinity Gainsborough Trinity 2-1 HT 0-0 Morpeth Town Morpeth Town İNGNLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gainsborough Trinity
3-1
AWAY Morpeth Town
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 2
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gainsborough Trinity vs Morpeth Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gainsborough Trinity beat Morpeth Town 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gainsborough Trinity as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Gainsborough Trinity had 49% of the ball to Morpeth Town's 51%, shots finished 11-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Morpeth Town led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gainsborough Trinity and 1.67 for Morpeth Town.

What was the final score of Gainsborough Trinity vs Morpeth Town?

Gainsborough Trinity 3-1 Morpeth Town in the England - Non League Premier on 13/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gainsborough Trinity vs Morpeth Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gainsborough Trinity win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Gainsborough Trinity 46%, draw 27%, Morpeth Town 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gainsborough Trinity), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gainsborough Trinity) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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