Independiente Del Valle 1-0 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 13 Aug 2025

Independiente Del Valle
1-0 HT 1-0
Mushuc Runa
📅13/08/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Copa Sudamericana – 2025

Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
2.27
No
43%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.9
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
4.13
6+ Goals
12%
19.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.13 — our 24% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.8
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
18.55
X/1
17%
3.66
X/2
8%
13.6
X/X
13%
5.17
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
27.0
2/2
5%
12.8
2/X
5%
21.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 12% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-7.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.5pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+4.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
40%
+17.1pp
43%
BTTS No
60%
-17.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Del Valle v Mushuc Runa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 16%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +83% / +83%
4.91/0.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.58
+130% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +111% / +150%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 209 · 71%
34.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
33.0 Crosses 9.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.0

Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.91 xG 1.07
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
354 Passes 181
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.05.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 1-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
05.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
19.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
06.08.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-1 HT 2-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
03.11.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK

Independiente Del Valle 1-0 Mushuc Runa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-0
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.54 xG 0.64
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 1
435 Passes 222
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
37 Box Touches 5
27 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle edged past Mushuc Runa 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 63% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 37%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 1.54 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.00 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa?

Independiente Del Valle 1-0 Mushuc Runa in the Copa Sudamericana on 13/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 57%, draw 25%, Mushuc Runa 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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