Finn Harps 1-0 Longford Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
31%
3.64
Away
20%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
2.0
Over 2.5
39%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.75
No
56%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
35%
3.73
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.26
6+ Goals
8%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.73 — our 35% vs market 21.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
13%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-6.6pp
31%
Draw
24%
+6.9pp
20%
Away Win
20%
-0.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
46%
+14.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
54%
-14.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.6pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Longford Town EU Bookmakers 24%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -9%
1.64/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.74
-5% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
428 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Finn Harps
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Longford Town
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.06.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
10.05.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 3-2 HT 2-2 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
17.02.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-3 HT 2-1 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
25.08.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
09.06.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-3 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
28.04.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-1 HT 1-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
POST-MATCH Finn Harps vs Longford Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps nicked a narrow win over Longford Town 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Finn Harps as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Finn Harps had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Finn Harps and 1.50 for Longford Town.

What was the final score of Finn Harps vs Longford Town?

Finn Harps 1-0 Longford Town in the Ireland - 1st Division on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Finn Harps win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Finn Harps 49%, draw 31%, Longford Town 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Finn Harps), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Finn Harps) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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