Longford Town 1-1 Finn Harps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 28 Jun 2024

Longford Town
1-1 HT 0-1
Finn Harps
📅28/06/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Ireland - 1st Division – 2024

Longford Town vs Finn Harps Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.74
Over 2.5
43%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.07
6+ Goals
7%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 33% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+2.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.9pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Longford Town v Finn Harps — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Longford Town EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 45%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -21%
1.03/1.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.29/1.39
-23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -81% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
274 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

Longford Town vs Finn Harps Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Longford Town
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Finn Harps
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.05.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 3-2 HT 2-2 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
17.02.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 2-3 HT 2-1 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
25.08.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-1 HT 0-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
09.06.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 2-3 HT 1-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
28.04.2023 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-1 HT 1-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
18.03.2023 Longford Town Longford Town 0-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
POST-MATCH Longford Town vs Finn Harps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Longford Town and Finn Harps couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Finn Harps at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Finn Harps led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Longford Town and 1.83 for Finn Harps.

What was the final score of Longford Town vs Finn Harps?

Longford Town 1-1 Finn Harps in the Ireland - 1st Division on 28/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?

Before kick-off our model rated an Finn Harps win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Longford Town 33%, draw 25%, Finn Harps 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Finn Harps), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Finn Harps) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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