AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 Vitesse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 13 Sep 2024

📅13/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.54
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.9
6+ Goals
11%
8.33
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.1
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.32
X/2
11%
6.38
X/X
14%
5.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
2/2
14%
4.0
2/X
5%
12.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.2pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-1.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.5pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitesse EU Bookmakers 37%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +57% / +57%
1.60/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/1.48
+24% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% /
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
345 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 78%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
10.4 Crosses 9.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar II
0-1
AWAY Vitesse
1.20 xG 0.74
61% Ball Possession 39%
9 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
469 Passes 270
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 9
7 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar II vs Vitesse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitesse squeezed past AZ Alkmaar II 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was AZ Alkmaar II at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar II had 61% of the ball to Vitesse's 39%, shots finished 9-6, expected goals 1.20 to 0.74 — on chances, AZ Alkmaar II could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar II vs Vitesse?

AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 Vitesse in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 13/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar II vs Vitesse?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar II 44%, draw 24%, Vitesse 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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