Cagliari 2-0 Parma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.68
Over 2.5
39%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.7
2-3 Goals
39%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
3.97
6+ Goals
8%
18.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.7 — our 35% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.11
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
12.15
X/1
16%
5.02
X/2
11%
6.89
X/X
16%
3.92
2/1
6%
28.5
2/2
10%
5.14
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.5pp
31%
Draw
30%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.5pp
61%
Under 2.5
56%
+5.1pp
39%
Over 2.5
44%
-5.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Parma EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -6%
1.44/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.13
+12% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
25.0 Crosses 13.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Parma
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.45
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
285 Passes 420
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
09.02.2025 Cagliari Cagliari 2-1 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTA
30.09.2024 Parma Parma 2-3 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
03.06.2023 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
30.05.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 3-2 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTB
22.04.2023 Parma Parma 2-1 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
03.12.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
2-0
AWAY Parma
1.13 xG 1.96
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
319 Passes 303
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Parma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari saw off Parma 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cagliari as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Cagliari had 51% of the ball to Parma's 49%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 1.13 to 1.96 — the balance of chances actually favoured Parma.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cagliari had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Cagliari and 1.33 for Parma.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Parma?

Cagliari 2-0 Parma in the Italy - Serie A on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Parma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 41%, draw 31%, Parma 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cagliari), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cagliari) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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