Cagliari 2-1 Parma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.0
Over 2.5
54%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.56
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
13%
4.75
X/2
8%
7.98
X/X
12%
5.0
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
23.0
2/2
15%
5.75
2/X
5%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
46%
-0.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
54%
+0.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.4pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Parma EU Bookmakers 29%
-6% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.84/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.43
-3% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -6%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
331 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 78%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
25.5 Crosses 13.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Parma
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.57 xG 1.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
317 Passes 382
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 25
26 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2024 Parma Parma 2-3 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
03.06.2023 Parma Parma 0-0 HT 0-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
30.05.2023 Cagliari Cagliari 3-2 HT 0-2 Parma Parma İTB
22.04.2023 Parma Parma 2-1 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTB
03.12.2022 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTB
17.04.2021 Cagliari Cagliari 4-3 HT 1-2 Parma Parma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
2-1
AWAY Parma
1.17 xG 0.83
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 6
260 Passes 452
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Parma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari nicked a narrow win over Parma 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cagliari as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Cagliari had 38% of the ball to Parma's 62%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.17 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cagliari had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Cagliari and 1.67 for Parma.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Parma?

Cagliari 2-1 Parma in the Italy - Serie A on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Parma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 44%, draw 26%, Parma 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cagliari), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cagliari) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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