Lazio 5-1 Monza — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 Feb 2025

Lazio
5-1 HT 1-0
Monza
📅09/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.32
Draw
23%
4.81
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.28
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
24%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
8.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.28 — our 29% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.52
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
20.5
X/1
16%
3.75
X/2
7%
17.85
X/X
12%
7.48
2/1
10%
22.1
2/2
7%
15.55
2/X
6%
23.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
71%
-13.7pp
23%
Draw
18%
+5.6pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Monza EU Bookmakers 14%
+4% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.87/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.77
+8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +12%
61% Ball Possession 39%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
479 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
19.1 Crosses 11.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
3W-2D-0L
AWAY Monza
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
1.21 xG 1.15
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
408 Passes 493
87% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2024 Monza Monza 0-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
04.05.2024 Monza Monza 2-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
23.09.2023 Lazio Lazio 1-1 HT 1-1 Monza Monza İTA
02.04.2023 Monza Monza 0-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
10.11.2022 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Monza Monza İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
5-1
AWAY Monza
3.19 xG 0.89
61% Ball Possession 39%
26 Total Shots 3
10 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 1
521 Passes 313
92% Pass Accuracy 86%
53 Box Touches 2
23 Crosses 8
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Monza
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio swept aside Monza 5-1. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lazio had 61% of the ball to Monza's 39%, shots finished 26-3, expected goals 3.19 to 0.89.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Lazio and 0.60 for Monza.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Monza?

Lazio 5-1 Monza in the Italy - Serie A on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Monza?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Lazio 58%, draw 23%, Monza 19%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
9 Feb 2025
14:30 Venezia vs Roma Analysis →
17:00 Cagliari vs Parma Analysis →
20:00 Lecce vs Bologna Analysis →
22:45 Napoli vs Udinese Analysis →