Napoli 1-1 Udinese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.47
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
23%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.01
2-3 Goals
41%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.63
6+ Goals
10%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.8
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
17.95
X/1
21%
3.71
X/2
10%
13.25
X/X
7%
5.45
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
5%
12.1
2/X
10%
20.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
64%
-11.9pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.6pp
23%
Away Win
14%
+9.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.2pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Napoli EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Udinese EU Bookmakers 17%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +14%
1.60/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.79
-13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -13%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
453 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 78%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
20.2 Crosses 13.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Napoli
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Udinese
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.54 xG 0.76
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
519 Passes 236
88% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 Udinese Udinese 1-3 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
06.05.2024 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 0-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
27.09.2023 Napoli Napoli 4-1 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
04.05.2023 Udinese Udinese 1-1 HT 1-0 Napoli Napoli İTA
12.11.2022 Napoli Napoli 3-2 HT 2-0 Udinese Udinese İTA
19.03.2022 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 0-1 Udinese Udinese İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Napoli
1-1
AWAY Udinese
1.14 xG 0.79
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
470 Passes 269
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Napoli vs Udinese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli and Udinese shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Napoli at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Napoli had 62% of the ball to Udinese's 38%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.14 to 0.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Napoli and 1.17 for Udinese.

What was the final score of Napoli vs Udinese?

Napoli 1-1 Udinese in the Italy - Serie A on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Napoli vs Udinese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Napoli 52%, draw 25%, Udinese 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Napoli), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Napoli) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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