Fiorentina 1-3 Napoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.18
6+ Goals
9%
21.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
6.32
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
10%
7.71
X/2
13%
4.41
X/X
16%
4.06
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.67
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
25%
+2.2pp
31%
Draw
28%
+3.2pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-5.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-3.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+3.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.4pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Napoli EU Bookmakers 51%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.23/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/0.92
+54% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +6%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
313 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
17.5 Crosses 15.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Napoli
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.19 xG 1.78
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
405 Passes 351
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.03.2025 Napoli Napoli 2-1 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
04.01.2025 Fiorentina Fiorentina 0-3 HT 0-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
17.05.2024 Fiorentina Fiorentina 2-2 HT 2-1 Napoli Napoli İTA
18.01.2024 Napoli Napoli 3-0 HT 1-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTSK
08.10.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-3 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
07.05.2023 Napoli Napoli 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
1-3
AWAY Napoli
1.69 xG 3.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
19 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 9
8 Corners 5
373 Passes 346
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 28
23 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Napoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Napoli got the better of Fiorentina 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Fiorentina had 53% of the ball to Napoli's 47%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 1.69 to 3.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fiorentina and 2.00 for Napoli.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Napoli?

Fiorentina 1-3 Napoli in the Italy - Serie A on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Napoli?

Before kick-off our model rated an Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 27%, draw 31%, Napoli 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Napoli) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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