Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Napoli v Fiorentina — Team-Based Signals
Napoli vs Fiorentina Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-3
HT 1-1
Fiorentina
İTA
1-0
HT 0-0
Fiorentina
İTA
0-0
HT 0-0
Napoli
İTA
Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina — Actual Match Statistics
Napoli nicked a narrow win over Fiorentina 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Napoli as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Napoli had 49% of the ball to Fiorentina's 51%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.85 to 0.72 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Napoli's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Napoli had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Napoli and 0.83 for Fiorentina.
What was the final score of Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina in the Italy - Serie A on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Napoli vs Fiorentina?
Before kick-off our model rated a Napoli win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Napoli 47%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Napoli) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.