Empoli 0-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 9 Mar 2025

Empoli
0-1 HT 0-1
Roma
📅09/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.46
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
43%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.91
6+ Goals
11%
18.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.93
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
5%
13.6
X/1
9%
7.64
X/2
12%
4.73
X/X
14%
4.13
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.79
2/X
11%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
26%
+1.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
43%
Away Win
46%
-2.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.9pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 49%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.89/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.98
-3% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
263 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 79%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
15.2 Crosses 18.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Roma
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
1.58 xG 2.18
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
327 Passes 402
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 30
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.08.2024 Roma Roma 1-2 HT 0-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
26.05.2024 Empoli Empoli 2-1 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
17.09.2023 Roma Roma 7-0 HT 3-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
04.02.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 2-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
12.09.2022 Empoli Empoli 1-2 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
23.01.2022 Empoli Empoli 2-4 HT 0-4 Roma Roma İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
0-1
AWAY Roma
0.11 xG 1.98
36% Ball Possession 64%
3 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 9
280 Passes 566
78% Pass Accuracy 88%
4 Box Touches 27
11 Crosses 18
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma edged past Empoli 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Empoli had 36% of the ball to Roma's 64%, shots finished 3-15, expected goals 0.11 to 1.98 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Roma's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Empoli and 2.83 for Roma.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Roma?

Empoli 0-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 09/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Empoli 27%, draw 30%, Roma 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Under 2.5
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