Roma 1-2 Empoli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 25 Aug 2024

Roma
1-2 HT 0-1
Empoli
📅25/08/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.9
Over 2.5
44%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.99
No
56%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.31
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.56
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.31 — our 26% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
17.65
X/1
20%
3.55
X/2
7%
12.2
X/X
10%
5.49
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
13%
10.25
2/X
8%
18.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
62%
-10.8pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.5pp
25%
Away Win
16%
+9.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
49%
+7.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
51%
-7.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.5pp
56%
BTTS No
54%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Empoli EU Bookmakers 19%
+5% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.88/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.61
+14% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +19%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
19.1 Crosses 15.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Empoli
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.04 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
405 Passes 344
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.05.2024 Empoli Empoli 2-1 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
17.09.2023 Roma Roma 7-0 HT 3-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
04.02.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 2-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
12.09.2022 Empoli Empoli 1-2 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
23.01.2022 Empoli Empoli 2-4 HT 0-4 Roma Roma İTA
03.10.2021 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
1-2
AWAY Empoli
2.19 xG 2.87
73% Ball Possession 27%
27 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
547 Passes 171
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
48 Box Touches 21
35 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Roma vs Empoli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Empoli nicked a narrow win over Roma 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Roma at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Roma had 73% of the ball to Empoli's 27%, shots finished 27-14, expected goals 2.19 to 2.87.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Roma and 0.83 for Empoli.

What was the final score of Roma vs Empoli?

Roma 1-2 Empoli in the Italy - Serie A on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Empoli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Roma 52%, draw 23%, Empoli 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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