Empoli 2-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 26 May 2024

Empoli
2-1 HT 1-1
Roma
📅26/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.58
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.99
1/2
9%
32.0
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
6%
4.81
X/2
7%
6.48
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
8%
24.85
2/2
17%
4.53
2/X
10%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.2pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -18%
1.48/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.36
-17% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 81%
27.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
19.5 Crosses 14.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Roma
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.82 xG 1.97
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 5
373 Passes 400
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Roma Roma 7-0 HT 3-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
04.02.2023 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 2-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
12.09.2022 Empoli Empoli 1-2 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
23.01.2022 Empoli Empoli 2-4 HT 0-4 Roma Roma İTA
03.10.2021 Roma Roma 2-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
11.03.2019 Roma Roma 2-1 HT 2-1 Empoli Empoli İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
2-1
AWAY Roma
2.64 xG 1.34
33% Ball Possession 67%
17 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
185 Passes 473
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
32 Box Touches 33
17 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Empoli nicked a narrow win over Roma 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Empoli found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Empoli had 33% of the ball to Roma's 67%, shots finished 17-15, expected goals 2.64 to 1.34 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Empoli's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Roma led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Empoli and 3.17 for Roma.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Roma?

Empoli 2-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Empoli win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Empoli 37%, draw 30%, Roma 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Empoli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Empoli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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