Lazio 1-1 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 26 May 2024

📅26/05/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.37
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
24%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.43
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.43 — our 25% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
69%
-17.0pp
24%
Draw
19%
+5.9pp
24%
Away Win
13%
+11.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +4%
1.84/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.91
+10% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / -14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
473 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
18.0 Crosses 13.7
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.90 xG 1.02
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
452 Passes 476
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-2 HT 0-2 Lazio Lazio İTA
03.05.2023 Lazio Lazio 2-0 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
15.01.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
02.04.2022 Lazio Lazio 2-1 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
12.12.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-1 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
14.08.2021 Lazio Lazio 1-1 HT 1-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
1-1
AWAY Sassuolo
1.03 xG 1.11
69% Ball Possession 31%
8 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
633 Passes 241
89% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio and Sassuolo shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lazio at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lazio had 69% of the ball to Sassuolo's 31%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 1.03 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lazio and 0.67 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Sassuolo?

Lazio 1-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 26/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lazio 52%, draw 24%, Sassuolo 24%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lazio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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