NEC Nijmegen 3-5 PSV Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 13 Sep 2025

NEC Nijmegen
3-5 HT 1-3
PSV Eindhoven
📅13/09/2025 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.04
Draw
17%
4.08
Away
60%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
3.14
Over 2.5
60%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.39
No
41%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.54
2-3 Goals
40%
2.25
4-5 Goals
26%
2.32
6+ Goals
14%
4.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.88
1/2
7%
17.2
1/X
4%
13.95
X/1
6%
10.85
X/2 EV+ ✗
26%
4.8
X/X
6%
7.25
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
27%
1.94
2/X
7%
12.6
Value flag · X/2 at 4.8 — our 26% vs market 16.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
21%
+1.7pp
17%
Draw
21%
-4.0pp
60%
Away Win
57%
+2.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
28%
+11.4pp
60%
Over 2.5
72%
-11.4pp
59%
BTTS Yes
68%
-8.6pp
41%
BTTS No
32%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v PSV Eindhoven — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY PSV Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 62%
-8% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.38/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.20/0.99
-2% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -4%
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 83%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.5
19.5 Crosses 19.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1W-1D-4L
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.89 xG 3.50
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
262 Passes 487
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 43
11 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.02.2025 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-3 HT 0-0 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
14.09.2024 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 2-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
30.03.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-1 HT 1-1 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
16.09.2023 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 4-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
01.04.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-4 HT 0-3 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven HOL
30.10.2022 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 3-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL

NEC Nijmegen 3-5 PSV Eindhoven — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3-5
AWAY PSV Eindhoven
2.00 xG 2.76
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 11
8 Corners 4
300 Passes 229
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 34
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSV Eindhoven got the better of NEC Nijmegen 5-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had PSV Eindhoven as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 57% of the ball to PSV Eindhoven's 43%, shots finished 20-18, expected goals 2.00 to 2.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSV Eindhoven led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 2.83 for PSV Eindhoven.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

NEC Nijmegen 3-5 PSV Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated an PSV Eindhoven win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 23%, draw 17%, PSV Eindhoven 60%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSV Eindhoven), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSV Eindhoven) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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