Mazatlan 1-4 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 13 Sep 2025

📅13/09/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.68
Over 2.5
49%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.69
4-5 Goals
21%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
18.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 46%
+10% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.36/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.98
+17% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +3%
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
270 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 81%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
17.9 Crosses 22.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mazatlan
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.65 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
313 Passes 381
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.02.2025 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
09.11.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
06.04.2024 Mazatlan Mazatlan 0-4 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
09.07.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
25.02.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-2 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
28.07.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-1 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mazatlan
1-4
AWAY Pumas UNAM
2.36 xG 3.77
66% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
459 Passes 216
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
45 Box Touches 19
22 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Mazatlan vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM swept aside Mazatlan 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 27% / 40% — and on the day Pumas UNAM made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Mazatlan had 66% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 34%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 2.36 to 3.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Mazatlan and 1.50 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Mazatlan vs Pumas UNAM?

Mazatlan 1-4 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 13/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mazatlan vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mazatlan 33%, draw 27%, Pumas UNAM 40%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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