Avellino 5-0 Casertana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 13 Oct 2024

📅13/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
65%
1.62
Over
35%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.6
2-3
43%
1.77
4-5
16%
4.53
6+
8%
24.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.6 — our 33% vs market 32.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-7.6pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.8pp
65%
Under 2.5
58%
+7.0pp
35%
Over 2.5
42%
-7.0pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.1pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Casertana EU Bookmakers 20%
-11% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.36/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.04
-22% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +44%
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
364 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Casertana
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.02.2024 Avellino Avellino 2-1 HT 2-1 Casertana Casertana İTC
16.10.2023 Casertana Casertana 0-2 HT 0-1 Avellino Avellino İTC
21.02.2021 Casertana Casertana 0-2 HT 0-2 Avellino Avellino İTC
25.10.2020 Avellino Avellino 3-1 HT 1-1 Casertana Casertana İTC
17.11.2019 Casertana Casertana 2-0 HT 2-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
09.08.2015 Avellino Avellino 3-0 HT 1-0 Casertana Casertana İTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
5-0
AWAY Casertana
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Avellino vs Casertana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino cruised past Casertana 5-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Avellino as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (63%) landed while under 2.5 goals (65%) missed.

On the day, Avellino had 50% of the ball to Casertana's 50%, shots finished 14-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avellino had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Avellino and 0.67 for Casertana.

What was the final score of Avellino vs Casertana?

Avellino 5-0 Casertana in the Italy - Serie C on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs Casertana?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Avellino 51%, draw 27%, Casertana 22%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avellino), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avellino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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