Taranto 1-0 Picerno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 13 Oct 2024

📅13/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.87
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
42%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
65%
1.56
Over
35%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.09
No
61%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2.42
2-3
37%
1.78
4-5
17%
4.96
6+
8%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.42 — our 38% vs market 34.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
22%
+8.6pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.2pp
42%
Away Win
50%
-7.3pp
65%
Under 2.5
60%
+5.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
40%
-5.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
44%
-5.2pp
61%
BTTS No
56%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Taranto EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Picerno EU Bookmakers 54%
+19% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.49/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/0.88
+55% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
250 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Taranto
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Picerno
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.05.2024 Taranto Taranto 0-0 HT 0-0 Picerno Picerno İTC
12.01.2024 Taranto Taranto 1-1 HT 0-0 Picerno Picerno İTC
05.10.2023 Picerno Picerno 1-1 HT 0-1 Taranto Taranto İTCK
11.09.2023 Picerno Picerno 1-1 HT 1-0 Taranto Taranto İTC
12.03.2023 Taranto Taranto 0-1 HT 0-1 Picerno Picerno İTC
06.11.2022 Picerno Picerno 2-1 HT 1-1 Taranto Taranto İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Taranto
1-0
AWAY Picerno
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Taranto vs Picerno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Taranto squeezed past Picerno 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Picerno at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Taranto had 45% of the ball to Picerno's 55%, shots finished 12-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Picerno led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Taranto and 1.00 for Picerno.

What was the final score of Taranto vs Picerno?

Taranto 1-0 Picerno in the Italy - Serie C on 13/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Taranto vs Picerno?

Before kick-off our model rated an Picerno win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Taranto 31%, draw 27%, Picerno 42%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Picerno) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Picerno) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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