Mafra 2-0 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 13 Dec 2025

📅13/12/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
21%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
53%
-0.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
21%
Away Win
21%
-0.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 24%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.17
+38% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.86 xG 0.80
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
388 Passes 278
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-0 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR3
24.04.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-2 HT 0-1 Mafra Mafra POR2
04.11.2022 Mafra Mafra 3-2 HT 1-2 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
19.03.2022 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 2-0 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
31.10.2021 Mafra Mafra 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR2
01.08.2021 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 3-1 HT 1-0 Mafra Mafra PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
2-0
AWAY Sporting Covilha
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra beat Sporting Covilha 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Mafra as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Mafra had 40% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 60%, shots finished 12-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Mafra and 1.50 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Sporting Covilha?

Mafra 2-0 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 13/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mafra win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Mafra 53%, draw 27%, Sporting Covilha 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mafra), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mafra) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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