14/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-0
2nd Score
1-0
Paganese vs Nardo Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
Over
49%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
40%
4-5
26%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
7%
1/X
11%
X/1
20%
X/2
6%
X/X
4%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
4%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Paganese win — 60% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH
Home Win
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
60%
Home Win
86%
19%
Draw
9%
21%
Away Win
6%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Paganese v Nardo — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Paganese
The Market 90%
Head to Head
AWAY
Nardo
The Market 8%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+82% /
+82%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
+73%
/
–
56%
Ball Possession
44%
15
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
3
542 · 89%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
254 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Paganese vs Nardo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Paganese and Nardo shared the points in a 1-1 draw.
This one beat our numbers. Paganese carried 60% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.
What was the final score of Paganese vs Nardo?
Paganese 1-1 Nardo in the Italy - Serie D on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Paganese vs Nardo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Paganese win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Paganese 60%, draw 19%, Nardo 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Paganese), BTTS No went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Paganese)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
14 Jan 2024