14/01/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-0
2nd Score
1-1
Poggibonsi vs Sporting Trestina Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
69%
Over
31%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
No
64%
Total Goals
0-1
38%
2-3
39%
4-5
13%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
21%
X/X
25%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 69% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
27%
Home Win
37%
38%
Draw
30%
36%
Away Win
33%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Poggibonsi v Sporting Trestina — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Poggibonsi
The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY
Sporting Trestina
The Market 37%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-48% /
-48%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-7%
/
-42%
49%
Ball Possession
51%
10
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
4
4
Corners
4
260 · 74%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
299 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Poggibonsi vs Sporting Trestina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Poggibonsi and Sporting Trestina shared the points in a 1-1 draw.
Our pre-match split (27% / 38% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (69%) landed while no to both teams scoring (64%) missed.
What was the final score of Poggibonsi vs Sporting Trestina?
Poggibonsi 1-1 Sporting Trestina in the Italy - Serie D on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Poggibonsi vs Sporting Trestina?
Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Poggibonsi 27%, draw 38%, Sporting Trestina 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Draw), Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Draw)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS No
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More Italy - Serie D
14 Jan 2024