Tondela 3-2 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 14 Jan 2024

Tondela
3-2 HT 1-1
AVS
📅14/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
29%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
4.33
6+ Goals
8%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
40%
+2.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.6pp
29%
Away Win
31%
-2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tondela EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 34%
-13% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
1.19/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.76
-11% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +77% / +7%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.8 Crosses 16.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tondela
3-2
AWAY AVS
2.44 xG 0.52
44% Ball Possession 56%
19 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
93 Passes 128
47% Pass Accuracy 49%
25 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tondela vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela squeezed past AVS 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tondela had 44% of the ball to AVS's 56%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.44 to 0.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Tondela's control.

What was the final score of Tondela vs AVS?

Tondela 3-2 AVS in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 14/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tondela vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tondela 43%, draw 28%, AVS 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tondela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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