Merthyr Town 1-1 AFC Totton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.67
Draw
20%
3.35
Away
31%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.18
Over 2.5
62%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.53
No
46%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
2-3 Goals
53%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
8%
X/X
5%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
34%
+15.3pp
20%
Draw
26%
-6.4pp
32%
Away Win
40%
-8.8pp
38%
Under 2.5
42%
-4.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
58%
+4.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
61%
-7.6pp
46%
BTTS No
39%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Totton EU Bookmakers 45%
-21% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
1.23/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.22/1.33
-17% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +46% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
318 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Merthyr Town
0W-0D-3L
AWAY AFC Totton
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
05.10.2024 AFC Totton AFC Totton 1-0 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNFAT
11.11.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-3 HT 1-1 AFC Totton AFC Totton İNGNLP
31.10.2023 AFC Totton AFC Totton 2-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town FAK
POST-MATCH Merthyr Town vs AFC Totton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town and AFC Totton shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Merthyr Town at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, AFC Totton led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Merthyr Town and 2.00 for AFC Totton.

What was the final score of Merthyr Town vs AFC Totton?

Merthyr Town 1-1 AFC Totton in the England - Non League Premier on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merthyr Town vs AFC Totton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Merthyr Town 49%, draw 20%, AFC Totton 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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