Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
54%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.63
No
46%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.45
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
28%
2.79
6+ Goals
15%
7.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
7.82
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
21.1
1/X
7%
15.6
X/1
7%
10.95
X/2
15%
4.07
X/X
8%
6.12
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
30%
2.0
2/X
8%
15.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.1 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+3.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.1pp
54%
Away Win
58%
-4.9pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.6pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS No
43%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 62%
+11% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +3%
1.13/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.17/1.14
+16% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -7%
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 501 · 85%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.9
15.7 Crosses 21.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nottingham Forest
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Liverpool
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.91 xG 1.89
29% Ball Possession 71%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
185 Passes 562
68% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 36
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 0-1 HT 0-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
02.03.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
29.10.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 3-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
22.10.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
20.03.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nottingham Forest
1-1
AWAY Liverpool
0.31 xG 1.99
29% Ball Possession 71%
6 Total Shots 23
3 Shots on Target 7
0 Corners 9
159 Passes 482
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 52
9 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest and Liverpool shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Liverpool at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nottingham Forest had 29% of the ball to Liverpool's 71%, shots finished 6-23, expected goals 0.31 to 1.99.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.00 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?

Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Nottingham Forest 23%, draw 23%, Liverpool 54%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İNP More England - Premier League
14 Jan 2025
22:30 Chelsea vs Bournemouth Analysis →
22:30 West Ham United vs Fulham Analysis →
22:30 Brentford vs Manchester City Analysis →