Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.29
Draw
19%
5.15
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.63
Over 2.5
63%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.16
2-3 Goals
35%
2.08
4-5 Goals
30%
2.56
6+ Goals
16%
5.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.43
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
23.6
X/1
20%
3.57
X/2
9%
21.85
X/X
10%
9.22
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
21.0
2/2
5%
15.5
2/X
5%
23.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.0 — our 13% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
73%
-10.9pp
19%
Draw
16%
+2.9pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
34%
+2.7pp
63%
Over 2.5
66%
-2.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Nottingham Forest EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +4%
2.52/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.84
+9% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -4%
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
514 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 242 · 73%
42.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
24.3 Crosses 12.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Nottingham Forest
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
2.13 xG 1.03
71% Ball Possession 29%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
576 Passes 184
86% Pass Accuracy 68%
36 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
29.10.2023 Liverpool Liverpool 3-0 HT 2-0 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest İNP
22.10.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 1-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
20.03.2022 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 0-1 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
0-1
AWAY Nottingham Forest
0.94 xG 0.44
69% Ball Possession 31%
14 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
506 Passes 189
84% Pass Accuracy 69%
34 Box Touches 5
19 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nottingham Forest nicked a narrow win over Liverpool 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Liverpool at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liverpool had 69% of the ball to Nottingham Forest's 31%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 0.94 to 0.44 — the balance of chances actually favoured Liverpool.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Liverpool had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Liverpool and 0.25 for Nottingham Forest.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Liverpool 0-1 Nottingham Forest in the England - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 62%, draw 19%, Nottingham Forest 19%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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