Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aston Villa v Everton — Team-Based Signals
Aston Villa vs Everton Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-1
Everton
İNLK
4-0
HT 2-0
Everton
İNP
0-2
HT 0-0
Aston Villa
İNP
2-1
HT 1-0
Everton
İNP
0-1
HT 0-1
Aston Villa
İNP
Aston Villa 3-2 Everton — Actual Match Statistics
Aston Villa squeezed past Everton 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Aston Villa as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Aston Villa had 73% of the ball to Everton's 27%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.12 to 0.90 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Aston Villa's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aston Villa had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aston Villa and 0.50 for Everton.
What was the final score of Aston Villa vs Everton?
Aston Villa 3-2 Everton in the England - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aston Villa vs Everton?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aston Villa win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Aston Villa 51%, draw 25%, Everton 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aston Villa), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.