Manchester City 2-1 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.28
Draw
21%
5.28
Away
20%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.61
Over 2.5
60%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.11
2-3 Goals
40%
2.08
4-5 Goals
27%
2.56
6+ Goals
14%
5.63
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.4
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
25.5
X/1
16%
3.52
X/2
9%
23.6
X/X
9%
9.52
2/1
8%
21.45
2/2
7%
17.1
2/X
5%
24.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
74%
-15.1pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.6pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+10.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
35%
+5.1pp
60%
Over 2.5
65%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 12%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +0%
2.36/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.90
+35% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +23%
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
522 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 75%
44.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.6 Crosses 12.9
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Brentford
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.84 xG 0.79
72% Ball Possession 28%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
616 Passes 180
89% Pass Accuracy 68%
41 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
20.02.2024 Manchester City Manchester City 1-0 HT 0-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
05.02.2024 Brentford Brentford 1-3 HT 1-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
28.05.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
12.11.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 1-2 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford İNP
09.02.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 2-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
29.12.2021 Brentford Brentford 0-1 HT 0-1 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
2-1
AWAY Brentford
2.17 xG 0.96
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 3
485 Passes 398
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
52 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City nicked a narrow win over Brentford 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Manchester City had 54% of the ball to Brentford's 46%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.17 to 0.96 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Manchester City's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Manchester City and 0.67 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Brentford?

Manchester City 2-1 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 59%, draw 21%, Brentford 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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