Swindon Town 1-2 Birmingham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
6.35
Draw
28%
4.62
Away
55%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.88
No
58%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
9%
7.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.35 — our 25% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
13.4
1/2
12%
22.1
1/X
9%
21.2
X/1
6%
17.25
X/2
20%
3.56
X/X
12%
7.37
2/1
3%
34.5
2/2
24%
1.6
2/X
6%
20.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
12%
+4.8pp
28%
Draw
18%
+10.1pp
55%
Away Win
70%
-14.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.4pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Birmingham EU Bookmakers 75%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / +60%
35% Ball Possession 65%
6 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
227 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 499 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
Crosses 24.5
Yellow Cards 4.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Swindon Town
1-2
AWAY Birmingham
0.46 xG 0.86
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 9
151 Passes 359
63% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Swindon Town vs Birmingham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham nicked a narrow win over Swindon Town 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Swindon Town had 37% of the ball to Birmingham's 63%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.46 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Swindon Town vs Birmingham?

Swindon Town 1-2 Birmingham in the England - Futbol League Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Swindon Town vs Birmingham?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Swindon Town 17%, draw 28%, Birmingham 55%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ BTTS No
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