Cheltenham Town 2-1 Colchester — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
25%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.25
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
6%
13.2
X/1
17%
6.15
X/2
9%
5.2
X/X
14%
4.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
31.0
2/2
15%
3.35
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 31.0 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
34%
+7.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
32%
Away Win
39%
-7.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.6pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Colchester EU Bookmakers 43%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
1.42/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.34/1.02
-3% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -89% / -61%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
279 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 72%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
21.3 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cheltenham Town
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Colchester
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.54 xG 0.49
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
283 Passes 266
67% Pass Accuracy 68%
22 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.10.2024 Colchester Colchester 1-2 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
24.04.2021 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
29.12.2020 Colchester Colchester 0-0 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
29.02.2020 Colchester Colchester 0-2 HT 0-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
23.11.2019 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
09.02.2019 Colchester Colchester 3-0 HT 2-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cheltenham Town
2-1
AWAY Colchester
1.05 xG 0.90
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 9
124 Passes 236
54% Pass Accuracy 68%
7 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Cheltenham Town vs Colchester
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town edged past Colchester 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cheltenham Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Cheltenham Town had 41% of the ball to Colchester's 59%, shots finished 5-14, expected goals 1.05 to 0.90.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cheltenham Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cheltenham Town and 0.83 for Colchester.

What was the final score of Cheltenham Town vs Colchester?

Cheltenham Town 2-1 Colchester in the England - Futbol League Cup on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cheltenham Town vs Colchester?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cheltenham Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cheltenham Town 42%, draw 27%, Colchester 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cheltenham Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cheltenham Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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