Newtown 1-2 Penybont — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 14 Jan 2025

Newtown
1-2 HT 0-1
Penybont
📅14/01/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Wales - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newtown vs Penybont Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.71
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
61%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.7
6+ Goals
11%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 30% vs market 27.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
44%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
18%
-0.4pp
21%
Draw
24%
-3.0pp
61%
Away Win
58%
+3.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.0pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newtown v Penybont — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newtown EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Penybont EU Bookmakers 62%
-4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
0.88/1.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.04/0.45
-11% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +113%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 6
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 403 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1

Newtown vs Penybont Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newtown
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Penybont
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.08.2024 Penybont Penybont 0-0 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
11.05.2024 Newtown Newtown 0-5 HT 0-3 Penybont Penybont GAL
19.11.2023 Penybont Penybont 1-1 HT 0-0 Newtown Newtown GAL
12.08.2023 Newtown Newtown 1-3 HT 0-2 Penybont Penybont GAL
22.04.2023 Penybont Penybont 2-1 HT 0-1 Newtown Newtown GAL
18.03.2023 Newtown Newtown 0-1 HT 0-0 Penybont Penybont GAL
POST-MATCH Newtown vs Penybont
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penybont nicked a narrow win over Newtown 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Penybont as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penybont led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Newtown and 2.00 for Penybont.

What was the final score of Newtown vs Penybont?

Newtown 1-2 Penybont in the Wales - Premier League on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newtown vs Penybont?

Before kick-off our model rated an Penybont win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Newtown 18%, draw 21%, Penybont 61%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penybont), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penybont) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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