Rio Ave U23 4-5 Santa Clara U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - U23 National Championship, 14 Jan 2025

📅14/01/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
39%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
16%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
46%
-8.8pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.0pp
39%
Away Win
27%
+11.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave U23 EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Clara U23 EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
2.49/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+29% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +89%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
263 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave U23
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Santa Clara U23
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 4
16.04.2024 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 2-3 HT 2-2 Santa Clara U23 Santa Clara U23 PORU23
13.02.2024 Santa Clara U23 Santa Clara U23 1-1 Rio Ave U23 Rio Ave U23 PORU23
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave U23
4-5
AWAY Santa Clara U23
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rio Ave U23 vs Santa Clara U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Clara U23 edged past Rio Ave U23 5-4 away from home. It was 3-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 9 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 39%) promised a tight game; Santa Clara U23 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rio Ave U23 had 52% of the ball to Santa Clara U23's 48%, shots finished 8-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Santa Clara U23 led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rio Ave U23 and 2.00 for Santa Clara U23.

What was the final score of Rio Ave U23 vs Santa Clara U23?

Rio Ave U23 4-5 Santa Clara U23 in the Portugal - U23 National Championship on 14/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave U23 vs Santa Clara U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Santa Clara U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave U23 38%, draw 24%, Santa Clara U23 39%. The final score 4-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Clara U23) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santa Clara U23) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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