Porto vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities
Porto v Benfica — Team-Based Signals
Porto vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Porto 1-0 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics
Porto squeezed past Benfica 1-0.
True to our pre-match read, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals call finished the job: under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (55%) landed.
On the day, Benfica saw more of the ball, 53% to 47%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 0.76 to 1.65 — on chances, Benfica could feel hard done by.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.17 a game for Porto against 1.83 for Benfica.
Porto vs Benfica Result & Final Score
Porto 1 - 0 Benfica in the Portugal - Cup on 14/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Porto vs Benfica Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Porto 44%, draw 31%, Benfica 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.