Shelbourne 3-1 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 14 Feb 2025

📅14/02/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.67
Draw
36%
2.83
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.19
No
57%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
1.94
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
5.98
6+ Goals
5%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.44
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.85
X/1
5%
5.48
X/2
11%
5.21
X/X
24%
3.35
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
15%
4.11
2/X
4%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
34%
-4.9pp
36%
Draw
32%
+4.6pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.3pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
-0.7pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
+0.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.1pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shelbourne EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 38%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
0.94/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.82
+10% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 76%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
13.9 Crosses 17.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shelbourne
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Derry City
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.66 xG 0.65
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
418 Passes 300
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2024 Derry City Derry City 0-1 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
14.09.2024 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 1-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRK
05.08.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 0-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
06.05.2024 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
01.04.2024 Shelbourne Shelbourne 0-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
20.10.2023 Derry City Derry City 0-0 HT 0-0 Shelbourne Shelbourne İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shelbourne
3-1
AWAY Derry City
1.88 xG 1.07
40% Ball Possession 60%
18 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
238 Passes 392
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 12
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shelbourne vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shelbourne got the better of Derry City 3-1.

Our pre-match split (29% / 36% / 35%) promised a tight game; Shelbourne found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shelbourne had 40% of the ball to Derry City's 60%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.88 to 1.07.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Shelbourne and 0.50 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Shelbourne vs Derry City?

Shelbourne 3-1 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 14/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shelbourne vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Shelbourne 29%, draw 36%, Derry City 35%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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