Aarau vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aarau v Thun — Team-Based Signals
Aarau vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-2
HT 3-0
Thun
İSV2
2-0
HT 1-0
Aarau
İSV2
Aarau 1-0 Thun — Actual Match Statistics
Aarau nicked a narrow win over Thun 1-0.
Our pre-match lean was Thun at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Aarau had 52% of the ball to Thun's 48%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.84 to 0.90.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thun led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Aarau and 1.50 for Thun.
What was the final score of Aarau vs Thun?
Aarau 1-0 Thun in the Switzerland Challenge League on 14/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aarau vs Thun?
Before kick-off our model rated an Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aarau 33%, draw 25%, Thun 42%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.