Aarau vs Thun Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aarau v Thun — Team-Based Signals
Aarau vs Thun Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
5-2
HT 3-0
Thun
İSV2
2-0
HT 1-0
Aarau
İSV2
2-3
HT 0-3
Aarau
İSV2
1-0
HT 1-0
Thun
İSV2
Aarau 1-3 Thun — Actual Match Statistics
Thun beat Aarau 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
As we said in the preview, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Aarau had 67% of the ball to Thun's 33%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.45 to 1.43.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aarau had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aarau and 1.17 for Thun.
What was the final score of Aarau vs Thun?
Aarau 1-3 Thun in the Switzerland Challenge League on 19/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aarau vs Thun?
Before kick-off our model rated an Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Aarau 28%, draw 24%, Thun 48%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.