Thun 1-1 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 30 Nov 2024

Thun
1-1 HT 1-0
Aarau
📅30/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.23
Over 2.5
55%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.83
6+ Goals
13%
8.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.6pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Thun EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 31%
+7% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
2.30/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.81
+4% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
359 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 81%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
20.2 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thun
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Aarau
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.86 xG 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
267 Passes 333
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 27
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.07.2024 Aarau Aarau 1-3 HT 0-2 Thun Thun İSV2
19.04.2024 Aarau Aarau 3-0 HT 2-0 Thun Thun İSV2
16.02.2024 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
03.11.2023 Aarau Aarau 5-2 HT 3-0 Thun Thun İSV2
22.09.2023 Thun Thun 2-0 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
14.04.2023 Thun Thun 2-3 HT 0-3 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thun
1-1
AWAY Aarau
0.91 xG 1.55
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 1
293 Passes 325
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 36
28 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Thun vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun and Aarau couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Thun at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Thun had 48% of the ball to Aarau's 52%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 0.91 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Thun and 2.00 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Thun vs Aarau?

Thun 1-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Thun vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Thun 45%, draw 25%, Aarau 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Thun), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Thun) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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