Lobos UPNFM 3-4 Real Espana — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 14 Feb 2025

📅14/02/2025 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.69
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.54
Over 2.5
41%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
17%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
24%
+4.3pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-4.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
61%
-1.7pp
41%
Over 2.5
39%
+1.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.2pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Espana EU Bookmakers 51%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.93/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.98
-12% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +5%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
229 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 381 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lobos UPNFM
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Real Espana
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
01.12.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 0-0 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
23.09.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
04.04.2024 Real Espana Real Espana 1-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
04.02.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-1 HT 0-0 Real Espana Real Espana HON
08.10.2023 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-3 HT 1-1 Real Espana Real Espana HON
12.08.2023 Real Espana Real Espana 2-1 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Espana squeezed past Lobos UPNFM 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Real Espana as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Espana led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lobos UPNFM and 1.17 for Real Espana.

What was the final score of Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana?

Lobos UPNFM 3-4 Real Espana in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 14/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lobos UPNFM vs Real Espana?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Espana win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lobos UPNFM 28%, draw 29%, Real Espana 43%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Espana) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Espana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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