Machida Zelvia 2-2 Mito HollyHock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Feb 2026

📅14/02/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.75
Over 2.5
52%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.84
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.8
6+ Goals
10%
16.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
11%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
60%
-3.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.4pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.5pp
48%
Under 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.7pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Machida Zelvia EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 20%
-9% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -41% / -41%
1.62/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.43/1.10
-27% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -44%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 78%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
23.5 Crosses 17.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Machida Zelvia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Mito HollyHock
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
24.06.2023 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 1-1 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
12.03.2023 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 3-0 HT 1-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
06.07.2022 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-3 HT 2-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
08.05.2022 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 0-0 HT 0-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
11.07.2021 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 2-1 HT 0-1 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
21.03.2021 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 3-0 HT 2-0 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Machida Zelvia
2-2
AWAY Mito HollyHock
1.07 xG 1.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 4
353 Passes 261
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
9 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Machida Zelvia vs Mito HollyHock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Machida Zelvia and Mito HollyHock shared the points in a 2-2 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Machida Zelvia at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Machida Zelvia had 56% of the ball to Mito HollyHock's 44%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.07 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.33 for Mito HollyHock.

What was the final score of Machida Zelvia vs Mito HollyHock?

Machida Zelvia 2-2 Mito HollyHock in the Japan - J1 League on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Machida Zelvia vs Mito HollyHock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Machida Zelvia win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Machida Zelvia 57%, draw 22%, Mito HollyHock 21%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Machida Zelvia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Machida Zelvia) ✓ Over 2.5
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