Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 14 Feb 2026

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-1 HT 1-1
Fagiano Okayama
📅14/02/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2026

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.49
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
13%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.11
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.51
6+ Goals
10%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 32% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
3%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
63%
+0.0pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.8pp
13%
Away Win
15%
-1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.7pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Fagiano Okayama — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 18%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.62/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.52
-9% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
457 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 77%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
25.7 Crosses 17.7
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.2

Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Fagiano Okayama Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.50 xG 0.56
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 5
368 Passes 174
78% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Box Touches 10
30 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
05.07.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
12.04.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Fagiano Okayama — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.91 xG 0.67
72% Ball Possession 28%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 1
520 Passes 162
85% Pass Accuracy 69%
33 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Fagiano Okayama couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

This one beat our numbers. Sanfrecce Hiroshima carried 63% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 72% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 28%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.91 to 0.67.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 0.50 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Fagiano Okayama?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 14/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 63%, draw 24%, Fagiano Okayama 13%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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