Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.03
No
59%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
2.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.13
6+ Goals
10%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 33% vs market 30.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.27
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.25
X/1
18%
4.08
X/2
9%
9.59
X/X
13%
4.58
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
11%
8.32
2/X
6%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
45%
-4.5pp
59%
BTTS No
55%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -40% / -40%
1.44/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/0.99
-5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -69% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 71%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
23.8 Crosses 22.4
1.0 Yellow Cards 0.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0-1
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.39 xG 0.73
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 5
402 Passes 197
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 13
30 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama edged past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 64% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 36%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.39 to 0.73 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Fagiano Okayama?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 49%, draw 26%, Fagiano Okayama 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
JAP More Japan - J1 League
12 Apr 2025
08:00 Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis →
08:00 Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kawasaki Frontale Analysis →
08:00 Gamba Osaka vs Nagoya Grampus Analysis →
09:00 Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima Antlers Analysis →
09:00 Tokyo Verdy vs Vissel Kobe Analysis →
10:00 Kyoto Sanga vs Shonan Bellmare Analysis →