Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Kashima Antlers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
39%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
12%
11.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.3
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
29.5
1/X
6%
12.75
X/1
13%
5.41
X/2
17%
6.43
X/X
11%
4.92
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
15%
4.31
2/X
8%
13.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.5 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-5.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
32%
+7.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.35/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.30
+1% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
415 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.1 Crosses 19.2
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Kashima Antlers
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.11 xG 0.97
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
326 Passes 227
74% Pass Accuracy 67%
22 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-2 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
02.03.2024 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
16.09.2023 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 1-0 HT 1-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
07.05.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-1 HT 0-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
06.07.2022 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers 3-3 HT 1-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
29.04.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 0-3 HT 0-2 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-0
AWAY Kashima Antlers
2.33 xG 0.32
65% Ball Possession 35%
17 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
509 Passes 220
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
38 Box Touches 7
27 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima Antlers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka squeezed past Kashima Antlers 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Cerezo Osaka found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 65% of the ball to Kashima Antlers's 35%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 2.33 to 0.32 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cerezo Osaka's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kashima Antlers led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.83 for Kashima Antlers.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima Antlers?

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Kashima Antlers in the Japan - J1 League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Kashima Antlers?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 36%, draw 25%, Kashima Antlers 40%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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