Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
36%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.62
6+ Goals
10%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.12 — our 29% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.11
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
12.45
X/1
12%
5.15
X/2
11%
7.01
X/X
12%
4.41
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
19%
5.04
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
43%
-6.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.5pp
36%
Away Win
29%
+7.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -8%
1.07/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.57
-23% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -27%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 79%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
23.4 Crosses 18.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.93 xG 1.52
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
218 Passes 574
68% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.06.2024 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 HT 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
01.03.2024 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 0-1 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
28.10.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-4 HT 0-2 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
28.05.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 HT 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
10.09.2022 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
21.05.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2-1
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
1.16 xG 0.40
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
308 Passes 464
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
28 Box Touches 12
23 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka edged past Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Avispa Fukuoka made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 41% of the ball to Yokohama F. Marinos's 59%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 1.16 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.33 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos in the Japan - J1 League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 37%, draw 27%, Yokohama F. Marinos 36%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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