Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Jun 2024

Avispa Fukuoka
2-1 HT 1-0
Yokohama F. Marinos
📅26/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2024

Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.13
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.74
6+ Goals
10%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.38
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
17%
5.09
X/2
13%
5.97
X/X
12%
4.43
2/1
9%
28.0
2/2
12%
4.23
2/X
10%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-0.6pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.4pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-0.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Avispa Fukuoka v Yokohama F. Marinos — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 36%
-4% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.16/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.67
-24% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
293 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 400 · 80%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
23.4 Crosses 17.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5

Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.89 xG 1.54
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
232 Passes 555
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.03.2024 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 0-1 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
28.10.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-4 HT 0-2 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
28.05.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 HT 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
10.09.2022 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 1-0 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
21.05.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
10.07.2021 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 HT 2-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP

Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
2-1
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
0.64 xG 1.71
27% Ball Possession 73%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 10
153 Passes 615
63% Pass Accuracy 90%
13 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka edged past Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Avispa Fukuoka found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 27% of the ball to Yokohama F. Marinos's 73%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.64 to 1.71 — on chances, Yokohama F. Marinos could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yokohama F. Marinos led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.50 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos in the Japan - J1 League on 26/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 39%, draw 29%, Yokohama F. Marinos 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✗ Under 2.5
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