Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Sagan Tosu — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 26 Jun 2024

📅26/06/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
23%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.74 — our 27% vs market 21.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.2
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
15%
4.08
X/2
10%
9.43
X/X
11%
5.23
2/1
9%
22.7
2/2
8%
7.08
2/X
9%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.6pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+3.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 24%
-3% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -7%
1.30/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.72
-19% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
443 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 361 · 78%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
21.6 Crosses 15.4
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cerezo Osaka
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.23 xG 0.77
43% Ball Possession 57%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
314 Passes 403
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 20
0 Yellow Cards 1
16.03.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-2 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
08.07.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
12.03.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
10.09.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
03.05.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
18.08.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cerezo Osaka
1-0
AWAY Sagan Tosu
1.39 xG 1.17
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
364 Passes 471
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
30 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Cerezo Osaka vs Sagan Tosu
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka nicked a narrow win over Sagan Tosu 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cerezo Osaka as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cerezo Osaka had 45% of the ball to Sagan Tosu's 55%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.39 to 1.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 0.83 for Sagan Tosu.

What was the final score of Cerezo Osaka vs Sagan Tosu?

Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Sagan Tosu in the Japan - J1 League on 26/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cerezo Osaka vs Sagan Tosu?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Cerezo Osaka 49%, draw 27%, Sagan Tosu 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5
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