Sagan Tosu 0-2 Cerezo Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.07
6+ Goals
8%
19.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.15
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
10%
13.95
X/1
12%
6.73
X/2
14%
4.55
X/X
12%
4.25
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.98
2/X
6%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+6.1pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
38%
Away Win
43%
-5.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerezo Osaka EU Bookmakers 48%
+5% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -7%
1.14/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.10
+6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +3%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
271 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 79%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
18.0 Crosses 19.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.28 xG 1.57
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
393 Passes 326
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.07.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 2-1 HT 0-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
12.03.2023 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
10.09.2022 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 2-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
03.05.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
18.08.2021 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 1-0 HT 1-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JPK
24.07.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-3 HT 3-1 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
0-2
AWAY Cerezo Osaka
0.59 xG 1.13
63% Ball Possession 37%
13 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 0
531 Passes 267
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Cerezo Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerezo Osaka got the better of Sagan Tosu 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Cerezo Osaka made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 63% of the ball to Cerezo Osaka's 37%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 0.59 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cerezo Osaka led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sagan Tosu and 1.67 for Cerezo Osaka.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Cerezo Osaka?

Sagan Tosu 0-2 Cerezo Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Cerezo Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cerezo Osaka win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 35%, draw 28%, Cerezo Osaka 38%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cerezo Osaka), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cerezo Osaka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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