Tokyo Verdy 2-2 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
31%
2.88
Away
33%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.48
Over 2.5
40%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.2
2-3 Goals
46%
1.8
4-5 Goals
17%
5.63
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.1
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
14%
5.27
X/2
13%
5.34
X/X
15%
3.48
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
15%
4.18
2/X EV+ ✗
9%
14.15
Value flag · 2/X at 14.15 — our 9% vs market 4.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.8pp
31%
Draw
31%
-0.4pp
33%
Away Win
34%
-0.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
64%
-4.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
36%
+4.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.0pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tokyo Verdy EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 37%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -3%
2.52/1.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/0.95
+102% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +23%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
Crosses 15.4
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tokyo Verdy
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 5
313 Passes 728
1 Yellow Cards 1
15.10.2022 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
08.05.2022 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 4-3 HT 3-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
19.09.2021 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-3 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
27.03.2021 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 7-0 HT 2-0 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
01.11.2020 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 2-2 HT 1-1 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy JAP2
29.07.2020 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 1-1 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tokyo Verdy
2-2
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.28 xG 1.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
310 Passes 582
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 29
15 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tokyo Verdy vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokyo Verdy and Albirex Niigata couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (36% / 31% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tokyo Verdy had 38% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 62%, shots finished 10-12, expected goals 1.28 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Albirex Niigata led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tokyo Verdy and 2.83 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Tokyo Verdy vs Albirex Niigata?

Tokyo Verdy 2-2 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tokyo Verdy vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tokyo Verdy win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Tokyo Verdy 36%, draw 31%, Albirex Niigata 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Tokyo Verdy) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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